CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-24T13:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-24T13:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28321/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N45W20 to N35W55 which begins to lift-off, appearing to deflect northward, around 2023-12-24T12:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive brightening is also visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery starting around 13:30Z. Arrival signature: Likely but not characteristic CME arrival/sheath with magnetic field enhancement to just below 8nT, followed at ~2023-12-27T20Z by a likely start of a flux rope showing smooth rotation of magnetic field components and possibly indicating a glancing blow from a CME since components run in parallel. The arrival time might be even earlier since there is a data gap in DSCOVR from 2023-12-27T07:16Z to 08:26Z (also overlapping by an even larger gap in ACE data). This arrival could alternatively be attributed to the arrival of 2023-12-24T16:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-27T08:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-27T16:45Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 42.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 11.88 hour(s)
Difference: -8.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-12-26T20:33Z
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